07 November 2025

Markets can be dramatic, but this week felt like theatre. Bitcoin slipped on the same stage it once strutted on, dragging the majors into a synchronized stumble. ETF outflows, a sturdier dollar, and a few overconfident longs turned what looked like a calm rehearsal into a full-blown selloff. And just when everyone was scanning the wreckage, Zcash walked in spotless, smug, and 70% richer to prove, once again, that in crypto, plot twists don’t wait for intermission.

Major crypto prices fell sharply this week. Bitcoin and many large-cap altcoins similarly lost double-digit gains over the week. This broad selloff came amid a confluence of macro and flow shocks. U.S. markets were rattled as the US Fed delivered a 25 bp cut on October 29 but signaled no commitment to a December move. The dollar strengthened (DXY ~100, a fresh multi-month high) and Treasury yields ticked up (10Y ≈4.1% on Nov 5), both headwinds for risk assets.

At the same time spot BTC funds saw net outflows: after huge October inflows, U.S. Bitcoin ETFs reversed with roughly $560 million redeemed this Tuesday, contributing to the weekly outflow of ~$890 million in three sessions. The combined effect of weaker dollar liquidity, reduced ETF demand and a surge in leveraged selling pushed prices down. In that context, one altcoin broke the mold: Zcash surged ~70% this week. We now examine each in turn.

Top-3 stories of the week:

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The newsletter is put together by Giottus Crypto Platform. You can read all the previous issues of Cryptogram here.

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WEEKLY MACROS

• Total crypto market cap - $3.41 trillion - DOWN 7.3%    

• Bitcoin price - $102,278 - DOWN 6.8%

• The dollar index (DXY) - 99.81 - UP 0.3%

• Bitcoin Dominance - 60.45% -  UP 1%

• Crypto Fear and Greed Index - 24 - Market is in Extreme Fear

THE HOT TAKE

This Week in Crypto: What Happened

This week read like a classic deleveraging tape: Bitcoin and Ethereum shed roughly 8% and 12% while top alts bled 10–20%, before recovering. What really shaped the week, though, was not a sudden change in fundamentals but the way flows lined up. Volatility jumped, funding turned sharply negative, and a large batch of leveraged longs was wiped out, leading to $2 billion liquidation days, as open interest fell.

Spot ETF flows dipped into the red, and liquidity on exchanges thinned—spreads widened, depth faded, and the usual weekend bounce under $100k for BTC never arrived. Taken together, it is a straightforward story: macro set the tone, ETF outflows and derivatives did the heavy lifting, and the market simply had to absorb a crowded long side getting cleared. The structure will stabilise, but for now the tape is being driven by flows rather than conviction.

Why Did the Market Crash? (Drivers & Evidence)

Flows turned sharply against the market this week. After two strong months of steady ETF buying, U.S. Bitcoin funds flipped into meaningful redemptions in late October and early November, signalling a clear cooling in institutional appetite. Stablecoin supply stayed broadly unchanged, so there was no fresh liquidity wave to offset the selling. On exchanges, Bitcoin holdings edged lower as investors moved coins off-platform during the drawdown, a pattern often seen when participants choose to de-risk or hold through volatility. Taken together, the tone of flows shifted from supportive to heavy, with ETF outflows doing most of the work and exchange activity reinforcing the broader pressure on price.

Microstructure: On-spot order books, liquidity on major exchanges dried up at the lows; bid sizes on Binance/OKX were much lower than recent weeks. Across exchanges, prices showed minor premiums/discounts. We note no evidence of a specific meltdown on a single venue—this was a generalized move. Crypto futures perp OI and volume have been more concentrated on Binance, OKX and Deribit, but the selloff was global. In short, trading depth was thin relative to the move.

The data point to a classic liquidity-driven downturn: a tight macro backdrop (Fed/dollar), institutional outflows (ETFs), and a leveraged long squeeze combined to break key price levels. The downturn seems driven more by flows and market structure than any single event—though Powell’s comments likely rattled sentiment.

Zcash Is Exploding: What’s Behind the Move?

Zcash (ZEC) stands out this week as an extreme outlier, rallying roughly 70% (from about $316 on 28 Oct to $541 on November 6). This move far outstrips broader crypto. ZEC hit a 7-year high (~$450) on November1 and cracked $500 yesterday. Trading volume exploded (24h volumes climbed into the high-single-digit billions USD). We investigate several facets of this surge.

1. ECC Q4 Roadmap: Electric Coin Company (the Zcash development firm) released its Q4 2025 roadmap, highlighting new privacy and usability features. Key items include “ephemeral transparent addresses” for each swap, rotation of receive addresses, and support for P2SH multisig in hardware wallets. These announcements signal ongoing development on Zcash’s shielded technology, possibly boosting confidence.
   

2. Influential Endorsements: Public figures have pitched ZEC as a ‘next big thing’. On October 1, investor Naval Ravikant called Zcash “insurance against Bitcoin,” a remark that preceded a massive rally (575% from early October). BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes (October 30) reiterated a bullish stance, saying “nothing will derail this momentum” and calling for ZEC to be a “key asset” in 2026. These endorsements attracted retail/institutional attention.

3. Market-Wide Privacy Surge: A related factor is interest in privacy coins broadly. Zcash’s rally coincided with strength in Monero and other privacy tokens.This institutional and retail hype around privacy tech—perhaps spurred by speculation about crypto regulation—fed into ZEC’s momentum.

Market Structure & Liquidity:

ZEC’s rally has unfolded primarily on major exchanges and derivatives platforms. On futures/perpetuals, open interest has hit new highs. Meanwhile Funding rates in the ZEC futures market have turned markedly negative, meaning short sellers currently pay to hold positions. This indicates some speculative pressure; in a healthy rally funding would ideally moderate near zero, but it remains skewed here.

We do note concentration risk: much of the volume is still on a few venues. For example, a large leveraged long ($13.7M at 5×) was reported on the Hyperliquid platform, but off-exchange volumes on DEXs or smaller venues appear smaller. Order-book depth on spot markets has improved with the rally, but liquidity is still relatively thin compared to bigger coins (wider spreads and lower bid sizes). The introduction of tokenized ZEC on Solana/BNB has not yet meaningfully changed this; those markets remain tiny. In summary, ZEC’s up move is supported by significant flow in futures (record OI) and on major spot venues, but it’s not yet a “mass-market” broad move across platforms.

Can the Momentum Sustain? 

Positive signals: For ZEC’s rally to continue, price should stay above the prior weekly high (~$409) on a weekly closing basis. A decisive weekly close above ~$500 (the new breakout level) would confirm strength. Second, futures funding should calm. Currently funding is deeply negative (shorts paying longs), which is a sign of heat; if price holds, funding should drift toward neutral. Third, open interest should grow in line with price, not collapse or explode. At present, OI is rising with price—that’s normal—but an OI surge without real buying could be a top signal. We’d watch if decentralized volume (e.g. on DEX) starts contributing meaningfully beyond CEXs; broader participation would lend credibility.

Negative triggers: Conversely, a quick unwind of these conditions would warn the rally may fail. A sustained drop below ~$500 (especially a weekly close there) would invalidate the breakout. If funding stays negative or OI growth spikes for several days, it could indicate a crowded move likely to reverse. Because the move is partly narrative-driven, fading attention (no new positive news) might cause profit-taking.

Scenarios:

• Base case: ZEC consolidates in the $500–$600 range, with funding easing toward zero and OI adjusting to price. Bitcoin and alts remain under pressure from macro, but ZEC finds support on its new range. A weekly close above $500 would be a neutral-to-bullish signal.
  

• Bull case: A fresh positive catalyst (e.g. announcement of major exchange adding ZEC, or a significant privacy coin regulatory win) pushes ZEC above the old all-time high (~$700) quickly. This would likely coincide with funding normalizing and even a short squeeze fueling extension.
  

• Bear case: Macro risk returns (e.g. equities tank or dollar shock), or a specific hit to privacy coins occurs. ZEC falls below $500 on weekly close, funding spiking negative, and OI beginning to unwind—this would likely see a drop back toward $400.
  

Final Takeaway

This week split the market into two clear stories. The broader tape moved into risk-off mode: Bitcoin and Ethereum slipped through key support as ETF outflows, a firmer dollar, and a clean-up of leveraged longs set the tone. Price action in the majors was flow-driven and defensive. Zcash, meanwhile, traded on a very different narrative. Its rally came from within the ecosystem itself—a refreshed privacy roadmap from ECC, strong commentary from high-profile investors, and renewed interest in privacy technology more broadly. None of this relied on wider market appetite, which explains why ZEC and the broader privacy coins moved against the trend.

The lesson is simple: flows drive the majors, while narrative and utility dictates gains. For BTC and ETH, the same variables will matter in the days ahead—dollar direction, Fed signals, and ETF activity. For ZEC, the test is whether it can hold its new breakout zone and avoid overheating. We’ll watch funding and open interest closely: stretched negative funding would warn of a tiring move, while a more balanced profile would suggest the rally is settling into something healthier.

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Disclaimer: Crypto products and NFTs are unregulated and can be highly risky. There may be no regulatory recourse for any loss from such transactions. Please do your own research before investing and seek independent legal/financial advice if you are unsure about the investments.