11 July 2025

We have done it! A new all-time high and a new high of emotions. Bitcoin hit $116,000 earlier today and is looking good for a strong growth phase. Even more heartening is the way altcoins seem to be shaping up. Ethereum, finally, has started outperforming Bitcoin while other majors – Cardano and Sui in particular – are surging. These are good days. And on days like these, we remind ourselves why we invest in crypto.

Today’s Hot Take is all about Bitcoin.

Top-3 stories of the week:

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The newsletter is put together by Giottus Crypto Platform. You can read all the previous issues of Cryptogram here.

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WEEKLY MACROS

• Total crypto market cap - $3.67 trillion - UP 9.2%    

• Bitcoin price - $117,886 - UP 8.3%

• The dollar index (DXY) - 97.72 - UP 0.8%

• Bitcoin Dominance - 64.8% -  DOWN 0.9%

• Crypto Fear and Greed Index - 71 - Market is in Greed

THE HOT TAKE

Bitcoin enters the acceleration phase

Bitcoin broke above $116,000 today as fresh macro signals suggest continued bullish momentum. A sharp rally yesterday followed Trump’s call for the US Fed to “rapidly lower rates,” amplifying risk-on sentiment across crypto and equities. BTC rose 4% on the day, extending its breakout from a tight range earlier this week and reminding markets how macro headlines can still trigger sharp moves.

We break down the key forces behind Bitcoin’s latest surge.

What drove Bitcoin to a new all-time high?

1. ETF flows keep the bid steady: Inflows into spot-Bitcoin ETFs have provided a consistent baseline for demand, limiting downside even during choppy sessions.

2. Institutions remain net buyers: Pension funds, sovereign wealth managers and hedge funds continue to add exposure, absorbing supply without chasing price.

3. Liquidity depth supports smoother rallies: Improved market infrastructure and regulated venues have reduced slippage, allowing large orders to execute with minimal market disruption.

4. Rate cut bets fuel optimism: With markets pricing in interest rate cuts and inflation trending lower, the macro backdrop has turned risk-friendly once again.

5. Low volatility sets the stage for bigger moves: Bitcoin’s quiet strength mirrors past cycles where compressed volatility preceded powerful rallies – as seen in 2016 and 2020.

Why low volatility matters?

Bitcoin’s 30-day volatility has fallen into the lowest 10% of its range over the past ten years. Periods of quiet price action like this have often come before major rallies. In late 2020, realized volatility dropped to similar lows before Bitcoin rose from $10,000 to $60,000. A repeat of that pattern occurred in mid-2016, ahead of the 2017 bull run. Low volatility means that market participants are holding their positions and not trading wildly on every headline.

With fewer sudden swings, long-term demand drivers such as ETF inflows and institutional adoption have a clearer impact on price. History tells us that when price swings stay subdued for an extended stretch, Bitcoin often breaks out into a stronger uptrend. Monitoring volatility alongside key support and resistance levels can help signal when the next leg up might begin.

EMA signals on Bitcoin’s weekly chart

Bitcoin has now held above its 20-week EMA (currently $100,270) for 12 straight weeks, with the 50-week EMA sitting near $88,476 and climbing fast. When these two moving averages stack at steep angles, like they did in 2017 (from $3,000 to $14,200) and again in 2020–2021 (from $11,000 to $64,000) it marks not just a bull market but an acceleration phase. Staying above both EMAs for over three months shows strong, sustained buying and a clear upward trend.

Volatility is rising along with price, confirming that we are moving in the direction of the trend rather than coasting in a tight range. The weekly RSI sits between 68 and 70, right where euphoric runs in the past kicked off while the MACD histogram remains solid instead of fading.

Does the rally have legs?

With global trade tensions set to rise and the US dollar stuck near multi-year lows, Bitcoin’s break above $116,000 shows investors are once again seeking refuge in digital assets. Given healthy on-chain metrics, solid fundamentals and ongoing macro pressures, we believe this rally still has plenty of room to run.

1. Exchange sell-pressure hits eight-year low

Bitcoin’s daily inflows to exchanges have dropped to 18,000 BTC, their lowest since April 2015, even as the price set new highs. This sharp decline (78%) in exchange deposits points to weakening sell-side pressure and suggests long-term holders are staying on board, allowing the rally to gather steam.

2. Whale exchange flows drop sharply

Bitcoin’s largest holders are sitting tight. The amount of BTC sent to exchanges by wallets holding 100+ BTC has dropped sharply, from over 62,000 BTC in late November to just 18,000 BTC this week, according to CryptoQuant. Less exchange inflow from these large holders means lower near-term selling pressure. Historically, when big players reduce their exchange activity, Bitcoin finds room to stabilize and build for its next directional move.

Multiple signals still point higher

Smart traders aren’t looking at just one chart, instead they look for patterns lining up. Right now, several key signals say Bitcoin still has room to run, not reverse.

Here’s what they’re showing:

• Four-year cycle is still on track: Bitcoin tends to follow a four-year rhythm. In past cycles, the top came around 1,070 days after the last bottom. We are currently about 925 days in, which means there could be a few more months before a potential peak. Based on this pattern, a top might form in late 2025. So far, there are no cycle-ending signals.

• Pi cycle top is calm: The Pi cycle top indicator has been accurate in spotting previous peaks. It triggers when the 111-day moving average crosses above the 350-day x2 moving average. Today, those lines are still far apart. Historically, this crossover happens just days before the market tops out. For now, it remains quiet.

• MVRV ratio shows no overheating: The MVRV ratio tracks whether Bitcoin’s market price is stretched above its realized value. Past market tops saw this number surge above 7. Right now, it is around 2.22. That suggests we are far from overheating. The market still has room to run before it enters danger zones.

None of these signals are flashing red. Most remain neutral to bullish. Until that changes, the broader trend continues to point upward.

Key Takeaway

Bitcoin’s latest breakout is the result of steady, structural demand meeting a favourable macro backdrop. Spot ETFs continue to funnel in billions, institutional wallets are sitting tight, and exchange selling pressure is at eight-year lows. Add improving liquidity and a market still far from overheated, and this rally has a strong base to build on.

None of the usual top signals are flashing red. Cycle timing still points to late 2025, the Pi Cycle Top remains quiet, and the MVRV ratio is nowhere near danger levels. Instead, what we see is a market holding its trend, absorbing macro volatility, and setting up for what could be the later stages of a bull run. That does not mean straight-line gains. But for now, the data says this rally has more room to run before exhaustion sets in.

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If you have any questions or feedback for us, write to us at [email protected]. You can check out the previous issues here.

Disclaimer: Crypto products and NFTs are unregulated and can be highly risky. There may be no regulatory recourse for any loss from such transactions. Please do your own research before investing and seek independent legal/financial advice if you are unsure about the investments.