04 April 2025

Its official! Bitcoin (and crypto) had its worst Q1 since 2018. A ~12% drop in Bitcoin given the euphoria around Trump inauguration was unfathomable at the start of the year. But here we are.

Both Bitcoin and Ethereum are facing short-term uncertainty, with Ethereum dropping to levels not seen since 2023, around $1,775. However, not all players are backing down—Michael Saylor, CEO of Strategy, continues to show confidence by purchasing an additional $1.9 billion in Bitcoin. Meanwhile, GameStop, Metaplanet and Semler Scientific are strategically building their own Bitcoin reserve. Are these enough to bring back confidence?

US tariffs and other pressures are piling up – we can’t really predict what this year holds. However, we are fairly confident that while the market is in fear, it’s time to load up.

Will you? Or will you wait for a confirmation of reversal?

One ecosystem that we don’t really want you to load up on is – memecoins.

It’s not been smooth sails for its fanboys this year. We cover them in our Hot Take.

Top-3 stories of the week:

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The newsletter is put together by Giottus Crypto Platform. You can read all the previous issues of Cryptogram here.

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WEEKLY MACROS

• Total crypto market cap - $2.66 trillion - DOWN 5%    

• Bitcoin price - $83,199 - DOWN 3.5%

• The dollar index (DXY) - 101.79 - DOWN 2.4%

• Bitcoin Dominance - 62.82% -  UP 1.2%

• Crypto Fear and Greed Index - 28 - Market is in Fearful State

THE HOT TAKE

No Moon for Memecoins

As Bitcoin and the broader market await clearer direction, the meme coin sector has experienced a significant downturn, with many of these digital assets now trading at rock-bottom levels. The darling of retail investors last year, heavy weights like Dogecoin and Shiba Inu have seen their speculative appeal wane as both are down 16% weekly, leaving crypto commentators questioning whether meme coins are facing a similar fate to NFTs.

Let’s take a closer look to better understand the fading interest and explore how the once-booming sector has lost its lustre.

Google searches are down

Global Google searches for the term "memecoin" have seen a dramatic decline, dropping nearly 94% from their peak in January 2025. In the six weeks following the collapse of LIBRA, interest has all but evaporated. While the launch of the TRUMP and MELANIA tokens marked the height of meme coin mania, the fallout from LIBRA shattered the illusion that these assets were truly "fair launches."

Pumpfun revenue has diminished

Pump.fun, the Solana-based platform designed to facilitate fair launches of memecoins using a unique bonding curve pricing model, has experienced a sharp decline in activity over the past month as the craze cools off. To put it in perspective, the platform's revenue hit a high of $7 million on January 23, 2025, but has since struggled to maintain even $1 million in daily revenue.

The decline is even more stark when looking at tokens that complete the “bonding curve” process. This crucial step is needed before a memecoin can list on Raydium, Solana’s main decentralized exchange.

DOGE and SHIB, the OGs have witnessed significant decline

Dogecoin (DOGE) and Shiba Inu (SHIB) are struggling, hitting lower lows. DOGE is currently trading at $0.157, down 17.7% over the past week, while SHIB has dropped 14% in the same period.

Earlier this year, DOGE saw a strong rally due to speculation that it might be integrated into government plans. However, in a recent town hall, Elon Musk clarified that DOGE has no role in federal plans. This statement triggered DOGE's decline, while a broader market selloff has also put pressure on SHIB.

Naturally, memecoin market cap plummets

Recent data paints a stark picture of the downturn. Currently, the total meme coin market cap had fallen to $43.9 billion, a 68% drop from its December highs. Trading volumes have also followed suit, declining by 47% in the past month alone.

Key Takeaway

The golden era of memecoins aren’t yet here. Token launches have slowed, trading volumes have thinned, and what was once the hottest trend in crypto feels like a risky bet now. While early hype drove massive gains, the landscape has shifted - many retail investors now see memecoins as high-risk traps rather than easy wins. If you're still interested in exploring this space, due diligence is key.

For those who still want to take a chance, managing risk is crucial. Memecoins should never make up more than a small portion of your portfolio—ideally, no more than 2%. Only invest what you can afford to lose, treating it as a speculative play rather than a long-term strategy. Staying cautious, informed, and disciplined is the best way to navigate this unpredictable market.

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If you have any questions or feedback for us, write to us at [email protected]. You can check out the previous issues here.

Disclaimer: Crypto products and NFTs are unregulated and can be highly risky. There may be no regulatory recourse for any loss from such transactions. Please do your own research before investing and seek independent legal/financial advice if you are unsure about the investments.