21 February 2025

Which way will Bitcoin break? Above $100,000 or below $90,000?

The uncertainty has been plaguing us for a month now and we are still not closer to the answer.

The real pinch has been the underperformance of key altcoins – Ethereum, Solana and others. And memecoins… Oh no!

In our Hot Take, we discuss memecoins and how their ‘supercycle’ may have been cut short in 2025.

Top-3 stories of the week:

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2

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The newsletter is put together by Giottus Crypto Platform. You can read all the previous issues of Cryptogram here.

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WEEKLY MACROS

• Total crypto market cap - $3.22 trillion - UP 0.3%    

• Bitcoin price - 98,539 - UP 1.6%

• The dollar index (DXY) - 106.46 - DOWN 0.5%

• Bitcoin Dominance - 61.2% -  UP 0.5%

• Crypto Fear and Greed Index - 55 - Market is in Greed

THE HOT TAKE

Crypto Turns Against Memecoins

This week was officially the week crypto turned on memecoins. We witnessed fury and outrage befall both Argentina’s President Javier Milei and ‘CZ’, the founder of Binance.

Both used their platforms to promote memecoins this week. Both felt the blowback. Let’s get into it.

Argentina’s $LIBRA token disaster

On Feb 15, Argentina's President, Javier Milei, recently promoted a crypto project called "Viva La Libertad" in a now-deleted tweet. The project claimed it would help boost Argentina’s economy by funding small businesses and local projects. However, the website lacked key details—there was no clear explanation of how the token was allocated, and even the contact button led to a basic Google Form.

Naturally, people rushed to buy the token, likely expecting its price to skyrocket, similar to what happened when Trump launched his namesake $TRUMP memecoin. In just a few hours, the token’s market value appeared to reach billions before crashing to under $200 million.

Milei later distanced himself from the project, saying he wasn’t fully aware of the details. While some accused him of promoting a scam, it’s not that simple. These types of tokens are easy to exploit—traders can buy in early, manipulate prices, and cash out for big profits, even if the original project creators weren’t involved in the pump-and-dump.

Still, it’s a bad look for Milei. Promoting a token without fully understanding it was a risky move. Meanwhile, Argentina’s opposition is taking advantage of the backlash, with some even pushing for impeachment. It’s a wild situation-especially since Trump’s token has also lost about 65% of its value since launch.

Binance founder CZ’s mishap

The founder of Binance, the world’s biggest crypto exchange, had his own memecoin fiasco this week.

In the world of memecoins, pet names often spark hype—just look at Dogecoin, which was inspired by Elon Musk’s love for Shiba Inu dogs. Binance founder CZ decided to play into this trend, teasing that he would reveal his dog’s name and photo at a specific time in Dubai’s timezone. This gave people plenty of time to prepare and launch memecoins based on the name.

When he finally revealed that his dog’s name was Broccoli, chaos erupted. Thousands of Broccoli-themed memecoins launched instantly, and millions of dollars were scammed from eager buyers. While CZ didn’t create any of these tokens himself, it was obvious that this was going to happen.

Afterward, CZ admitted that he did it to boost activity on Binance’s blockchain, Binance Smart Chain (BSC), where some of the Broccoli coins performed better. “Yes, I wanted to see more activity on BSC,” he tweeted. “And I did not want to get involved in issuing/running a meme coin, as I have zero experience.”

This whole episode added to growing frustration in the crypto community about memecoins and how they’re often just get-rich-quick schemes. Dragonfly GP Rob Hadick summed it up well, saying this “race to the bottom” isn’t stopping anytime soon.

Signs the memecoin hype is fizzling out

1. The best way to visualize this shift is in data from memecoin launchpad Pump.fun. New users are falling precipitously. Pump.fun had 159,876 new addresses created on Nov. 11. As of Tuesday that number had dropped 63% to 59,348.

2. The launch of daily new tokens reached a local top of 71,735 on Jan. 23, just six days after $TRUMP went live. On Feb. 19, that number dropped to 35,152.

3. Daily trading volume for pump-and-dump activity has taken a major hit this week, dropping from $249 million on Feb. 10 to just $91.2 million yesterday.

So, what’s the message for retail investors?

• The easy money era for memecoins might be over – The massive gains seen in memecoins over the past few months were largely driven by hype. With trading volume, new token launches, and user interest dropping, it’s becoming harder to profit from these tokens. Be cautious about chasing pumps.

• Avoid getting caught in the dump – As seen with $LIBRA and many versions of $Broccoli, early buyers and insiders often manipulate prices, leaving latecomers holding worthless tokens. If a memecoin isn’t backed by a strong community, it’s likely just a short-lived gamble.

• Shift focus to stronger plays – Institutional investors are increasingly allocating capital to Bitcoin, with major financial firms launching Bitcoin ETFs and traditional hedge funds entering the space.

Memecoins might still have short-term pumps, but the easy profits are drying up. If you’re trading, be extra cautious, manage risk wisely, and consider moving toward assets with long-term value rather than chasing the next hype cycle.

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If you have any questions or feedback for us, write to us at [email protected]. You can check out the previous issues here.

Disclaimer: Crypto products and NFTs are unregulated and can be highly risky. There may be no regulatory recourse for any loss from such transactions. Please do your own research before investing and seek independent legal/financial advice if you are unsure about the investments.