01 August 2025

It’s been a mixed week for crypto. With Bitcoin and Ethereum holding their level, key altcoins have shed their gains. Mid-week, it looked like we were ready to launch. But with US FOMC’s hawkish tone and US tariffs coming back in focus, we need more time to consolidate. The low might be near, we just have to hang in there to catch the rally later.

In our Hot Take today, we cover a solid project that is close to being the breakout star this cycle – SUI.

Top-3 stories of the week:

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The newsletter is put together by Giottus Crypto Platform. You can read all the previous issues of Cryptogram here.

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WEEKLY MACROS

• Total crypto market cap - $3.74 trillion - DOWN 0.8%    

• Bitcoin price - $114,815 - DOWN 0.7%

• The dollar index (DXY) - 100 - UP 2.6%

• Bitcoin Dominance - 61.88% -  UP 0.6%

• Crypto Fear and Greed Index - 65 - Market is in Greed

THE HOT TAKE

SUI is positioning for a breakout 🔜

It’s been a telling week for Sui, a Layer 1 that’s beginning to look far more seasoned than its age suggests. While the token now holds firm near $3.5, it did witness a roller coaster with registering local top at $4.4. However, what stood out was the deeper momentum beneath the surface. Total Value Locked (TVL) crossed $2.2 billion, climbing nearly 40% in July, fuelled by strong DeFi inflows and growing app activity. On the institutional front, big bets are forming — with firms like Mill City Ventures revealing a $450 million SUI treasury position, and ETF issuers circling.

We’ll unpack the drivers and implications behind SUI’s temporary drop and macro setup in today’s deep dive..

A sharp climb - SUI tests new heights

SUI caught fire early in the week, surging to a local high of $4.44, its strongest move in recent weeks. The breakout marked a clean escape from the $4.2–$4.3 resistance zone that had stalled previous attempts. With over 32 million SUI traded in less than 24 hours, the move was driven by a surge in short-term momentum. The token’s brief stay above $4.4 hinted at growing confidence and rising interest in the broader Sui ecosystem. What powered the move was a mix of fundamentals and capital rotation. DeFi volumes on Sui continue to climb, with TVL exceeding $2.2 billion, placing it among the fastest-growing ecosystems in July.

Institutional appetite added fuel. In one of the most significant institutional moves of the year, Mill City Ventures is pivoting its treasury strategy around SUI, following a $450 million private placement led by Karatage and backed by the Sui Foundation itself. Nearly 98% of the proceeds will go toward acquiring SUI, positioning Mill City as the first publicly traded company with a Sui-native treasury. The strategy brings daily liquidity and institutional-grade access to what Mill City describes as a blockchain built for real-world scale — spanning AI, stablecoins, and next-gen apps.

Reversal on the rails: SUI gives back gains

But just as quickly as it rose, SUI gave back nearly 6%, pulling back toward the $4 range within 24 hours. The move was less about a sudden reversal in fundamentals and more about the structure of the market. Liquidity thinned out near the highs, and early profits were taken aggressively. That exit pressure, combined with weak spot support, triggered a fast move downward, indicating a pattern common in altcoins coming off key breakouts.

At the same time, macro conditions tilted risk-off. A rising US dollar index weighed on crypto broadly, and open interest in SUI futures fell by over $100 million, signalling that traders were reducing leverage exposure. While the token remains well above its monthly lows, the quick rejection from $4.4 shows that price discovery in Sui is still prone to volatility, especially when short-term enthusiasm runs ahead of deeper structural support.

Scheduled unlocks ahead: market braces for supply injection

Adding to the caution is the upcoming 44 million SUI token unlock happening today. Valued at roughly $166 million, this release represents around 1.3% of the total circulating supply. Historically, large unlocks can act as short-term weight on price, especially when the broader market is already recalibrating after a failed breakout. For traders, this event presents a supply overhang that needs to be absorbed — either through increased demand or staggered selling.

The unlock comes at a time when technicals are on edge. SUI is approaching its 50-day EMA (~$3.49), a level that could serve as a launchpad or turn into a deeper pullback if sentiment weakens. Long-term holders may see this as an opportunity, but in the near term, the token’s performance will likely hinge on how cleanly the market digests this fresh issuance — and whether demand from DeFi, staking, and treasuries is strong enough to offset the pressure.

SUI pullback could offer an entry worth watching

With a 44 million token unlock looming, SUI may face temporary sell pressure in the coming sessions. Based on current flows and support levels, we see a potential short-term retreat to the $3.3 range, a zone that could offer one of the most attractive entry points in this cycle. Here’s why we believe a dip into this range sets the stage for a compelling risk-reward opportunity.

1. ETF momentum signals institutional tailwind

The US SEC has begun reviewing a proposal for a SUI-based ETF, marking a major milestone in the token’s institutional trajectory. If approved, this would make SUI one of the few altcoins with a dedicated investment vehicle, a move that could drive long-term capital inflows, especially from traditional asset managers seeking compliant access to next-gen Layer 1 exposure. The review comes just weeks after Mill City Ventures' $450 million SUI treasury announcement, further cementing the token’s position on institutional radars.

This regulatory progression is important not just for visibility, but for liquidity. ETF inclusion would bring steady demand and daily volume, smoothing volatility over time and helping SUI mature as a capital asset. In a bull market driven by mainstream acceptance, ETF approval-even at the discussion stage, adds a layer of legitimacy that many altcoins still lack.

2. BTCFi: Bitcoin yield meets Sui’s speed

The launch of BTCFi on Sui has sparked a new wave of DeFi innovation — one that bridges Bitcoin’s liquidity with Sui’s ultra-fast infrastructure. With protocols like Aftermath, Cetus, Bluefin, and Momentum leading the charge, users can now earn yield on BTC natively within the Sui network. This unlocks a massive pool of idle capital and brings new use cases to the ecosystem without needing to leave Bitcoin behind.

What makes this more than just another narrative is the execution. Sui’s architecture — with parallel execution and high throughput — gives BTCFi projects the performance edge they need to scale. If this sub-sector matures, it could be the breakthrough use case that differentiates Sui from competitors like Solana and Avalanche. In a market that rewards unique product-market fit, BTCFi might be Sui’s boldest value unlock yet.

Key Takeaway

Sui is showing signs of becoming a serious contender in the Layer 1 race this cycle. This week’s action, from sharp price movements to institutional headlines, reflects a network steadily earning its place in investor portfolios. Yes, the upcoming token unlock may weigh on price near-term, but the underlying momentum from  growing DeFi traction, ETF visibility, to BTCFi innovation is harder to ignore.

If SUI does retrace further toward the $3.3 zone, that may be less a setback and more a setup. With fundamentals strengthening and real capital flowing in, Sui is building a layered thesis that holds weight in any market regime.

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Disclaimer: Crypto products and NFTs are unregulated and can be highly risky. There may be no regulatory recourse for any loss from such transactions. Please do your own research before investing and seek independent legal/financial advice if you are unsure about the investments.