24 November 2023

Hey Crypto Cool Cats,

Grab your moon helmets because the Binance rollercoaster just hit a loop-de-loop! 🎢 In case you missed the memo, our beloved CZ is taking a crypto siesta, leaving us wondering if Binance will sink or swim in the sea of regulatory turbulence. For now, it is CZ out!

Generally speaking, the CZ exit is good for the crypto ecosystem’s stability and the world, even Binance perhaps. Is it the case of one more Crypto Bad Boy going down or is it necessary action to ensure more compliance? We will know in the medium-term. But the question is, what next?

Before we get into it, the top stories and stats from the week that went by.

Top-3 stories of the week:

1

2

3

The newsletter is put together by Giottus Crypto Platform. You can read all the previous issues of Cryptogram here.

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WEEKLY MACROS

• Total crypto market cap - $1.42 trillion - UP 0.4%

• Bitcoin price - $37,400 - UP 3.0%

• The dollar index (DXY) - 103.7 - DOWN 0.7%

• Bitcoin Dominance - 52.6% - UP 0.9%

• Crypto Fear and Greed Index - 66 - the market is in greed

THE HOT TAKE

CZ exits Binance, a $4 billion smackdown - what's next?

A quick recap first. Binance has been slapped with the largest settlement in US history (FinCEN settlement of $3.4 billion and OFAC settlement of $968 million largest for each). Following this, CEO and crypto rock star CZ resigned amidst reports that he may be given a jail sentence. Crypto enthusiasts knew some action was coming this year – however, barring a temporary blip, markets have recovered well. There are two reasons for it:

One, as CZ points out in this tweet, things are better off than FTX given that in Binance’s resolutions with the U.S. agencies they:

• do not allege that Binance misappropriated any user funds, and

• do not allege that Binance engaged in any market manipulation

And two, our man CZ may have been able to allow Binance dancing its away out of this one, for he left it with enough reserves to brush off the dust.

Meanwhile, CZ's got a get-out-of-jail card (a.k.a. $175 million bail) and a date with destiny in February. Will he emerge as the hero or the villain? Only time will tell.

What’ been the impact of this? Lowkey market mayhem: Futures liquidation, BNB rollercoaster, and a dash of Coinbase magic.

• The BNB token dropped 11% and is now trying to recover like a tipsy sailor - it is now down 4% on weekly while Bitcoin is up 3% weekly. Meanwhile, $200 million went down the drain in futures liquidation and Binance saw $1 billion in net outflows, making it rain crypto tears. 😢. There is also a challenge to liquidity on the platform.

  But, a bank run has been avoided. (A bank run occurs when a large number of customers of a bank or financial institution withdraw their deposits simultaneously, typically due to concerns over the institution's solvency or stability. In simpler terms, it's like a financial stampede where everyone rushes to pull their money out of the bank.)

• Meanwhile, Binance also bid adieu to the US, which leaves us asking – what about India?

• Coinbase, on the other hand, is sipping on a victory latte, surging while Binance fumbles. A new crypto landscape is on the horizon—local heroes rising as global giants stumble.

Markets think that Binance settlement will build trust among US authorities and will drive the approval of BTC Spot ETF.

Takeaways for you cool cats:

• Binance will survive, but the glory days of 60% market share are now a distant memory.

• Local regulations are the new boss; Binance better start learning their language or face the consequences. Binance will be forced to heed to local regulations in key crypto markets – if it fails to do that, other governments have a precedent to act on.

• In India, Binance's dance with regulations is getting attention; scrutiny looms large. Bollywood drama incoming? Binance doesn’t charge 1% TDS on crypto sale that is mandated by the Indian Govt. and hasn’t yet become a reporting entity with FIU. They may face scrutiny. Binance is already under scrutiny for facilitating P2P asset transfers that are the key focus of the police to stop money laundering.

• BNB's reign might crumble if Binance loses its global grip. Currently the #4 crypto asset by market cap, it can lose its spot over the next few months. Sayonara, top 10?

What Should Indian Crypto Daredevils Do?

• Keep it cool, amigos: Too many uncertainties – we want to avoid a FTX like situation even if it’s only a 5% chance of playing out that way

• Move your assets to safety. Hardware wallets or local exchanges like Giottus could be your crypto fortresses.

• P2P on Binance? Just say no. Opt for safer shores like Giottus for smooth sailing.

• Diversify, diversify, diversify! BNB might be the belle of the ball, but there are plenty of altcoins in the crypto sea.

Remember, crypto fam, the market may be a wild rodeo, but with the right moves, we'll be riding high on the crypto comet. Stay alert and hodl on!

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Disclaimer: Crypto-asset or VDA investments are subject to market risks such as volatility and have no guaranteed returns. Please do your own research before investing and seek independent legal/financial advice if you are unsure about the investments.