26 July 2024

We haven’t yet recovered from the WazirX breach. As WazirX conducts an internal investigation, investors continue to worry about their assets. What are the options? Will they get a haircut deal? Will they get paid in WRX or any other crypto asset which might invoke a tax implication in itself? It is tough if you have parked a significant amount on the exchange.

There are also calls for self-custody of assets – the main advantage of crypto and blockchain. Indian exchanges have often disallowed this to boost their business.

We, at Giottus, are with you in this. We allow self-custody once a user completes the relevant KYC and due-diligence (as mandated by FIU). We urge all Indian exchanges to encourage this for regaining trust in the community.

Let's grow stronger, together.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin is trading at $67,000 and appears bullish while Ethereum has dropped in value after its spot ETF launch last week. Altcoins are looking for a possible recovery if Bitcoin holds.

Today, in our Hot Take, we cover XRP and the implications of SEC’s multi-year tussle with them. Before that, let’s have a look at the top stories and macros of the week.

Top-3 stories of the week:

1

2

3

The newsletter is put together by Giottus Crypto Platform. You can read all the previous issues of Cryptogram here.

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WEEKLY MACROS

• Total crypto market cap - $2.39 trillion - UP  1.7%

• Bitcoin price - $66,968 - UP 4.4%

• The dollar index (DXY) - 104.31 - UP 0.2%

• Bitcoin Dominance - 56.37% -  UP 2.5%

• Crypto Fear and Greed Index - 68 - Market is in Greedy State

THE HOT TAKE

Is XRP poised for a comeback? XRP TA and insights

XRP, the crypto asset powering Ripple's payment network, is attracting renewed interest as key developments unfold. All eyes were on a closed-door meeting on July 25 (yesterday night), when the US SEC and Ripple team discussed the path forward. The outcome of the meeting, which is key for the growth of XRP the asset, is not yet announced.

Why is this meeting significant?

The lawsuit has cast a shadow over XRP for years, creating uncertainty and hindering its growth. A resolution in Ripple's favour would remove this cloud, potentially paving the way for:

1. Increased investor confidence

2. Wider adoption; and

3. Price surge

Let’s quickly look at the dynamics of the lawsuit

• In 2020, the SEC sued Ripple claiming that Ripple illegally sold XRP to investors, raising over $1.3 billion, without following the rules for selling stock. Ripple fought back, arguing that XRP isn't like a stock and shouldn't be subject to the same regulations.

• In July 2023, the court ruled that selling XRP on crypto exchanges to the general public doesn't make it a security like a stock. However, the court also said that selling XRP directly to large investors, like institutions, does make it a security.

• In October 2023, the SEC dropped all charges against Garlinghouse and Larsen but continued seeking remedies for the purported sale of unregistered securities. While the lawsuit is over, the battle for remedies continued into 2024, with the SEC seeking hefty fines from Ripple.

Now coming back to XRP, its price has rallied this month. The ascent started on July 13 when it grew by 10% on the daily chart that led it to break a crucial $0.50 resistance level.

The rally paused last week

The asset continues to maintain its upswing until the meeting scheduled last week between US SEC and XRP was postponed. After a strong drop (8%), the asset quickly rallied and is now up 9% this week. The increased expectations that the legal battle between Ripple and the US SEC is drawing to an end could be another factor pushing XRP’s value up.

The American attorneys Fred Rispoli and Jeremy Hogan are among those speculating that an official resolution could occur as early as this summer.

On a related note, a massive transfer of 150 million XRP (worth about $87.5 million) from Ripple Labs to an unknown wallet has the XRP community buzzing with speculation. This mysterious move has fuelled theories that Ripple might be gearing up for a final settlement with the SEC, potentially using these funds to cover fines or other related costs.

These speculations has put Ripple back in the spotlight, stirring up memories of its impressive price surge around this time last year.

XRP active addresses tripled in a week

According to crypto analysis firm Santiment, active addresses for XRP tripled from 16k on July 12 to 47k on July 17. Then following the postponement of the meet, it has surfaced back to the base levels and currently stands at 18.2K

Data from Coinalyze shows that the aggregated open interest (OI) for XRP increased by 11% in the past 24 hours, signifying that more investors are positioned in the asset.

On the technical front, prominent crypto trader Crypto Michael commented on X that a bullish pennant pattern forming on XRP’s price chart over seven years can be observed, a rare occurrence where the price consolidates within a triangle pattern which usually is followed by a strong upward movement.

Stable coin launch on the cards?

In April this year, Ripple announced its plan to launch its own stablecoin pegged 1:1 to the US dollar later this year. While the timeline remains somewhat unclear, the closed-door meeting suggests initial discussions regarding their proposed RLUSD stablecoin could be on the agenda.

Ripple's established track record and robust partnerships position them as a reliable option for users concerned about the controversies surrounding other stablecoins. Additionally, Ripple is working on integrating real-world assets such as stocks and bonds onto the XRP Ledger, further bridging the gap between traditional finance and cryptocurrency.

Key insight: can ripple sustain this rally?

XRP is showing bullish momentum, having steadily climbed since July 8 amid slight setback followed by a recovery. This positive trend is reflected in both its price action, with higher highs and higher lows, and the MACD indicator, which confirms strong upward momentum.

Currently trading around $0.61, XRP has its sights set on retaking its 2024 peak of $0.74. A favourable outcome on the SEC suit and macro sentiments could boost XRP towards this resistance level than can lead to major upswings towards the pivotal $1 mark, a level that has not been possible for the asset to breach since 2021.

Overall, XRP is displaying strong signs of a continued uptrend, making it an asset to watch closely in the coming days and weeks.

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If you have any questions or feedback for us, write to us at [email protected]. You can check out the previous issues here.

Disclaimer: Crypto products and NFTs are unregulated and can be highly risky. There may be no regulatory recourse for any loss from such transactions. Please do your own research before investing and seek independent legal/financial advice if you are unsure about the investments.