14 November 2025

If markets had moods, this week would be “existential.” Bitcoin hovered around $100K like a philosopher pacing the edge of a cliff. It was unsure whether to leap higher or reflect on gravity. Gold, meanwhile, stole the spotlight with a record-chasing rally, proving that old hedges still know a few tricks. Between a freshly reopened U.S. government, mixed ETF flows, and the US Fed’s poker-faced rate talk, crypto found itself caught in the macro crosswinds once again. What followed was not a crash or a comeback. It was, and probably is, just a long, anxious pause before the next plot twist.

Bitcoin spent this week oscillating around the psychologically pivotal $100,000 mark. After rebounding from a four-month low near $98,900 to highs around $107,500 early in the week, BTC ultimately faded back to roughly $98,000 earlier today. Meanwhile, traditional hedges and risk assets told their own stories: gold jumped about 7% over the week to flirt with record highs, and U.S. stocks enjoyed a relief rally on Washington’s budget deal before stalling out amid renewed rate jitters.

Top-3 stories of the week:

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The newsletter is put together by Giottus Crypto Platform. You can read all the previous issues of Cryptogram here.

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WEEKLY MACROS

• Total crypto market cap - $3.28 trillion - DOWN 3.8%    

• Bitcoin price - $97,211 - DOWN 4.9%

• The dollar index (DXY) - 99.15 - DOWN 0.6%

• Bitcoin Dominance - 59.91% -  DOWN 0.8%

• Crypto Fear and Greed Index - 16 - Market is in Extreme Fear

THE HOT TAKE

Why does this macro dance matter for Bitcoin now?

The crypto’s price action is increasingly tethered to the broader risk environment. Bitcoin’s lackluster performance lately, despite a historic U.S. government shutdown being resolved and gold’s safe-haven rally, suggests that crypto-specific flows (like those from the new spot Bitcoin ETFs) and central bank policy expectations are currently exerting more influence than any intrinsic “store of value” bid. With institutional Bitcoin fund flows turning choppy and the US Federal Reserve dampening hopes for quick rate cuts, Bitcoin finds itself largely at the mercy of macro currents once again. 

Bitcoin Wavers in the Macro Crosscurrents

From a market structure perspective, Bitcoin remains in a holding pattern. We characterize the price action as a mild bearish consolidation: essentially in a consolidation phase between strong support and stiff resistance The lower bound,  roughly $97K-$100K, has attracted buyers and “seller exhaustion” whenever breached, preventing a deeper breakdown. But the upper bound, approximately $106K up to $112K, has consistently capped rebounds, as many investors use those levels to exit near breakeven.

The result was a range-bound Bitcoin even amid significant macro news. In effect, BTC has been acting more like a sensitive barometer of daily risk sentiment (rising and falling with equity momentum) than a steadfast store of value. Its inability to decisively break from the ~$100K–$110K band this week signals that new catalysts (or a flush-out of remaining sellers) may be needed to escape this macro-induced equilibrium.

Gold and the Safety Bid Shine Bright

Gold stole the spotlight as the premier safe-haven asset this week. The precious metal’s price surged for five straight sessions, gaining about 7%. The catalyst for gold’s resurgence was largely the resolution of America’s budget impasse: the end of the 43-day U.S. government shutdown removed a major uncertainty and cleared the path for a wave of delayed economic data and potential policy responses. 

For Bitcoin proponents, gold’s rally poses a pointed question: Why didn’t digital gold join in? Gold and Bitcoin often find themselves compared as alternative stores of value, but this week their fortunes diverged. While gold ripped higher on the safety bid, Bitcoin’s attempted bounce was comparatively muted and short-lived. Part of the explanation lies in market perception. Gold’s role as an inflation and crisis hedge is long-established and was reinforced by the shutdown saga. Gold’s year-to-date gain now stands around +45%, reflecting how much capital has sought refuge there in 2025. Bitcoin, by contrast, has yet to see the same level of safe-haven inflows during recent turmoil. Until Bitcoin can attract consistent haven demand (or until macro conditions swing decisively risk-on across the board), its price may remain a step behind gold during periods of macro stress.

Government Shutdown Drama

The 43-day U.S. shutdown finally ended this week, removing a major macro overhang but delivering only modest relief across markets. The bipartisan deal reopens the government through January 30, 2026, a short extension that was widely expected. Bitcoin bounced on the confirmation but quickly settled back into its usual range, reflecting that most of the “relief rally” had already been priced in.

The more meaningful angle is liquidity. The shutdown forced the government into unusually large short-term surpluses, creating one of the driest fiscal-liquidity periods in years and weighing on risk assets like Bitcoin. With operations back online, that pressure should ease as delayed spending flows through. It’s a slow positive, but another funding deadline in January keeps uncertainty alive, limiting any near-term upside.

Cooling Rate-Cut Hopes Test Market Liquidity

Rate expectations cooled sharply this week, adding another layer of pressure on risk assets. A string of Fed officials pushed back against the idea of a December cut, sending market-implied odds sliding from the high-60s to roughly 50/50. With inflation still near 3% and official data delayed by the shutdown, policymakers signalled they’re in no rush to ease. That shift removed some of the momentum that had helped Bitcoin and equities rally through October.

For markets, this meant a brief pullback as traders recalibrated. U.S. stocks softened, Bitcoin dipped below $100K, and yields held steady around 4.1% — a sign that financial conditions remain tight. The near-term read-through is simple: less easing, less fuel. But with the shutdown ending, fiscal spending is about to restart, offering a slower, secondary source of liquidity even if the Fed stays sidelined. For now, Bitcoin sits in a holding pattern, waiting for clearer signals on both inflation and policy direction.

US Spot ETFs: Still the Big Bitcoin Buyer?

After weeks of heavy selling, ETF flows finally stabilised but only tentatively. Early November saw over $1.2B in redemptions from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs as prices slid from ~$120K to ~$100K, a clear sign that institutional appetite had cooled. That steady outflow removed one of Bitcoin’s key sources of support and helped deepen the drawdown.

This week brought a mixed reset. Tuesday saw roughly $530M of dip-buying inflows, mainly into Fidelity and ARK’s funds, helping Bitcoin rebound toward ~$106K. But the optimism faded quickly: by Wednesday nearly $280M flowed back out as traders sold into strength. The net effect is a choppy, low-conviction pattern — not yet the sustained inflow trend that usually underpins durable rallies. Until ETF demand consistently turns positive, Bitcoin is likely to remain sensitive to swings in institutional sentiment.

What to Watch Next:

For a retail investor navigating this macro-crypto interplay, the key is to watch a few high-impact indicators in the coming weeks that could tip Bitcoin out of equilibrium:

• Macro Data & Fed Signal: With government data releases resuming, inflation and jobs prints will guide rate-cut expectations. Weak numbers could revive hopes of early-2026 easing; strong or sticky inflation keeps the Fed sidelined. Watch Fed Funds futures: a move back above 70–80% odds for a December or early-2026 cut would reset liquidity sentiment in Bitcoin’s favour.

• Next U.S. Funding Deadline: The shutdown is over, but funding still expires on 30 Jan 2026. Renewed brinkmanship could spark risk-off waves, while smooth negotiations would clear another macro overhang. Keep an eye on fiscal headlines through December–January — political stability helps Bitcoin, renewed gridlock can pressure it.

• Spot Bitcoin ETF Flows: Daily flows into IBIT, FBTC, ARKB and peers remain the clearest proxy for institutional demand. Sustained multi-week inflows would rebuild a price floor; renewed redemptions would signal caution and limit upside. If late-November reports show hundreds of millions of net inflows, it could mark a shift back toward accumulation.

• Price Levels & On-Chain Signals: For now, $100K is the key support and $110K–$115K the upside zone. Exchange outflows during strength = accumulation; inflows during weakness = caution. Watch exchange net-position change and short-term holder cost basis (~$112K): holding above these would signal improving market structure.

• Derivatives Pivot Points: Funding rates and options skew offer early sentiment hints. Sustained positive funding plus rising open interest suggests traders re-leveraging bullishly; deeply negative skew easing back toward neutral signals fear receding. Just beware: overly positive funding often precedes long wipeouts.

Takeaway:

This week showed Bitcoin moving tightly with macro sentiment — rising with early risk appetite, then fading as hawkish US Fed signals hit markets. Gold’s strong safe-haven rally left BTC looking more risk-asset than “digital gold,” while ETF flows stayed choppy and short-term holders capitulated. Still, whales and long-term investors absorbed supply near $100K, keeping Bitcoin range-bound in the low $100Ks.

Looking ahead, Bitcoin sits waiting for macro catalysts: upcoming inflation and jobs data will dictate whether the Fed turns more dovish or stays firm. ETF flows and holder behaviour around $100K–$106K will reveal whether fresh demand is returning or sellers remain in control. A break from this range will likely track whichever narrative wins out — easing vs tightening, accumulation vs distribution.

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Disclaimer: Crypto products and NFTs are unregulated and can be highly risky. There may be no regulatory recourse for any loss from such transactions. Please do your own research before investing and seek independent legal/financial advice if you are unsure about the investments.