19 December 2025

Bitcoin’s market is flashing a curious contradiction. ETF outflows hit a record this month. Around $3.5 to $3.7 billion left the system. It was the biggest monthly exit so far.

But at the same time, Wall Street is stepping closer. Bank of America told its wealth clients that a 1 to 4 per cent allocation to digital assets may now be appropriate. That advice surprised many investors. Money is leaving Bitcoin funds, yet big banks are guiding money toward Bitcoin.

This contrast captures the tension in the current cycle. Short-term sentiment feels shaky. Headlines talk about volatility and crowded exits. The mood reminds traders of past sell-offs. But long-term adoption is quietly gaining strength. The real progress is slow and steady and often invisible on the charts.

If you feel confused, that is normal. Crypto has behaved this way in earlier cycles too. When speculative energy fades and traders pull back, the groundwork for the next phase often forms quietly in the background. Short-term flows can move one way while long-term fundamentals move another. That is what a maturing market looks like.

Top-3 stories of the week:

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The newsletter is put together by Giottus Crypto Platform. You can read all the previous issues of Cryptogram here.

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WEEKLY MACROS

• Total crypto market cap - $2.98 trillion - DOWN 6.69%    

• Bitcoin price - $87,391 - DOWN 5.2%

• The dollar index (DXY) - 98.55 - UP 0.2%

• Bitcoin Dominance - 59.83% -  UP 0.8%

• Crypto Fear and Greed Index - 16 - Market is in Extreme Fear

Crypto Year in Review 2025 & Outlook for 2026

2025 proved to be a defining but uneven year for the crypto ecosystem. The year began with cautious optimism carried over from late 2024. That optimism turned into exuberance as Bitcoin crossed historic price milestones. By mid-year, sentiment was strong. Bitcoin and Ethereum were surging on hopes of friendlier policies and improving macro trends.

By December, the mood shifted. Sharp reversals and external shocks reminded investors that crypto remains a volatile ride. Bitcoin ended the year below its peak and roughly flat year-to-date. Ethereum lagged at times. The market ended far from the euphoria of the highs.

This special year-end review reflects on the five most important crypto events of 2025 and why they mattered beyond short-term price action. The focus is on how each event changed the market’s structure or its perception. The goal is to extract lessons from the turbulence and identify the forces likely to shape crypto in 2026. The tone is reflective and measured. This is a moment to understand the regime shifts underway in crypto, not to hype any asset.

The Five Crypto Events That Defined 2025

January 2025 – Bitcoin Breaks $100k on Political Optimism

After the U.S. elections, Bitcoin crossed six figures for the first time. It reached an all-time high between 103,000 and 109,000 dollars. The rally came from expectations of a friendlier regulatory climate under President Donald Trump. The move showed maturity and fragility. Crypto behaved like a macro asset that reacts to policy. Yet the sharp rise also showed that speculation still drives markets.

April 2025 – Tariff Shock Spurs a Correlation Crash

In April, a sudden macro shock hit all risk assets. The U.S. announced new tariffs on Chinese goods. Global markets fell. Crypto fell with them. Bitcoin dropped nearly 4 percent in a day. Ether fell more than 5 percent. Crypto-related stocks fell even deeper. This was the first major drawdown of 2025. It reminded traders that macro forces can shake crypto just as much as equities.

Mid-2025 – Wall Street Opens the Door

Mid-year marked a turning point for institutional adoption. Spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs gained momentum. Regulators cleared a broad wave of new products. In July, the SEC approved more ETFs and allowed in-kind creations and redemptions. This made ETFs more efficient. By September, approval times for many crypto ETFs dropped from 270 days to 75 days. Crypto was no longer a niche. Market structure began to look more like traditional finance.

October 2025 – Euphoria and a New All-Time High

In early October, Bitcoin surged to a new peak above 126,000 dollars. The rally came from strong ETF flows and a resilient economy. AI-linked tech stocks were also rising. Crypto rode the wave. Traders called the month “Uptober.” Global media attention increased as Bitcoin’s market cap crossed 2.3 trillion dollars. The market felt unstoppable.

October 10, 2025 – The Great Shake-Out

Days later, the market crashed. New tariffs and the threat of export controls from the U.S. shocked global assets. Bitcoin fell from its peak into the mid-80k range within days. Nearly 19 billion dollars in derivatives were liquidated. It was the largest liquidation event in crypto history. Exchanges struggled under volume. Volatility reached levels last seen in 2022. More than a trillion dollars in crypto value disappeared.

The crash showed two things at once. Infrastructure held up better than in past cycles. But the market remained vulnerable to external shocks and herd behavior.

What 2025 Revealed About the Crypto Market

The volatility of 2025 showed how closely crypto now tracks the broader financial system. Crypto did not act as a safe haven. It traded like a high-beta risk asset. Bitcoin fell with equities during tariff shocks and interest rate fears. Correlation with the S&P 500 increased. The “digital gold” idea remains unproven.

But the year also showed maturity. No major systemic failures occurred. Exchanges and stablecoins held up. ETFs and derivatives gave investors more tools. Long-term holders remained steady. Institutions brought discipline. Crypto looked less isolated and more integrated with global finance.

Five Forces Likely to Shape Crypto in 2026

1. Quiet Institutional Growth

Institutional involvement will deepen. Pension funds, asset managers and corporates may increase allocations. Adoption may grow without big announcements. Steady accumulation is likely.

2. Regulation Moves Toward Clarity

Governments will shift from broad crackdowns to targeted rules. Stablecoins, securities classification and exchange licensing will be key areas. The result will be less ambiguity, even if rules are stricter.

3. Market Structure Becomes More Mature

Custody solutions will improve. Proof-of-reserves may become standard. Regulated venues may gain market share over offshore exchanges. Crypto will look more like traditional markets. Some stress points will still need attention.

4. Retail Investors Become More Cautious

Retail participation will become more cyclical. Traders will show more discipline after the volatility of 2025. Stop losses, profit-taking and diversification will become more common. Indian retail may treat crypto more like a normal asset class.

5. Macro Will Be the Wildcard

Rate cuts may begin in 2026. Easier policy could boost risk assets. But a slowing economy may create headwinds. Crypto will face a major macro test.

Final Takeaway

The events of 2025 showed a market in transition. Crypto reached new highs but also faced sharp corrections. The year showed both strength and vulnerability. Crypto is becoming more integrated with traditional finance. It is also being tested more often.

For crypto investors, patience and discipline matter. The short-term outlook remains uncertain. Headlines will continue to move markets. Over longer periods, crypto tends to follow technology and monetary trends. Focus on learning, risk management and steady investing. Time in the market matters more than timing the market.

As the year ends, stay optimistic but grounded. Adoption is rising. Regulation is improving. But price predictions remain guesswork. Take a break from charts and return refreshed. Crypto will bring new lessons in 2026. With patience and a calm mind, we will be ready. 

Wishing all our readers a thoughtful holiday season and a healthy, prosperous New Year ahead. Enjoy the break, stay safe, and see you when the crypto year turns the page.

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If you have any questions or feedback for us, write to us at [email protected]. You can check out the previous issues here.

Disclaimer: Crypto products and NFTs are unregulated and can be highly risky. There may be no regulatory recourse for any loss from such transactions. Please do your own research before investing and seek independent legal/financial advice if you are unsure about the investments.