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Decoding January Trends for Bitcoin & Crypto

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Giottus Team
January 03, 2025

Decoding January Trends for Bitcoin & Crypto

03 January 2025

2025 is here. The year that we all believe that will redefine growth in crypto markets – in terms of price action and adoption.

Bitcoin is already up 3% this month and looking set for another dash towards $100,000. Today we track trends that could define crypto in January. Trump coming to office and a lot more to discuss ahead.

Let's dive in.

Top-3 stories of the week:

1

China tightens crypto trade oversight with new forex rules

China has introduced stricter foreign exchange rules requiring banks to monitor and report risky activities, including crypto-related cross-border transactions, by tracking user identities, fund sources, and trading frequencies. Despite its long-standing anti-crypto stance, China remains the second-largest Bitcoin holder globally, mainly because of the government's seizing assets tied to illegal activities.

2

IRS issues temporary relief on crypto cost-basis method changes

The IRS has issued temporary relief on crypto cost-basis method changes until December 31. This will allow crypto holders on centralized exchanges to avoid being defaulted to the FIFO (First In, First Out) accounting method, which could increase capital gains taxes. This delay gives brokers time to support alternative methods like HIFO or Spec ID, while crypto taxpayers can maintain their own records in the meantime.

3

New code fuels rumors X payments launch may be imminent

A recent leak of the software code behind Elon Musk’s platform, X, has fueled speculation that its much-anticipated payments system, dubbed “X Money,” might be on the verge of launching. X has been actively pursuing money transmitter licenses for its payments arm, X Payments LLC, and has already secured approval in 39 states. However, a rumored screenshot of the new code contains a line stating, “X Money is not available in your state.” This has led some, including entrepreneur Alex Finn, to theorize that X could roll out the system in the U.S. even before obtaining licenses in all 50 states.

The newsletter is put together by Giottus Crypto Platform. You can read all the previous issues of Cryptogram here.

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WEEKLY MACROS

  • Total crypto market cap - $3.4 trillion - UP 0.5%    

  • Bitcoin price - $96,458 - DOWN 0.3%

  • The dollar index (DXY) - 109.09 - UP 0.8%

  • Bitcoin Dominance - 57.56% -  DOWN 1%

  • Crypto Fear and Greed Index - 74 - Market is in Greed

THE HOT TAKE

2025: Catalysts for Crypto in January

As we step into 2025, crypto market sentiment looks upbeat. After a rollercoaster ride in 2024, investors and enthusiasts alike are eager to see what this year holds for the world of digital assets.

Today, we dive into the key catalysts that could influence the crypto market in January. From macroeconomic factors and regulatory decisions to technological advancements and major events, we’ll uncover the key drivers that could impact the market this month.

US macro data: key dates

The release of key economic data, such as inflation and employment figures, could impact investor sentiment and influence the flow of funds into or out of the crypto market.

  • Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) – Jan. 10: The labor market is expected to remain strong, with moderate job growth and a stable unemployment rate. However, weaker-than-expected job growth could raise concerns about economic stability and negatively impact the market.

  • Producer Price Index (PPI) – Jan. 14: PPI is also anticipated to show a moderate increase, reflecting ongoing inflationary pressures in the production pipeline. A lower-than-expected PPI could ease those concerns and provide support for the market.

  • Consumer Price Index (CPI) - Jan 15: Analysts expect CPI to show a slight increase, with inflation remaining above the US Fed’s target. Higher-than-expected inflation could strengthen the case for continued interest rate hikes, potentially putting downward pressure on digital assets

 New ETF decision on Solana

Decisions on proposed ETFs for Solana are expected this month. Approvals could open the door for significant institutional investment, driving demand and potentially boosting the prices of these assets. Although ETF approvals this month are unlikely, a surprise approval could trigger significant gains for Solana, driven by the excitement surrounding this narrative. Realistically, we anticipate that Solana ETFs are more likely to receive approval collectively by August 2025.

Deadlines on ETF decisions. Source: Coinedition

Shift in political landscape

President-elect Trump is set to be sworn in on Jan. 20. With his administration taking charge, US is expected to ramp up efforts to catch up in shaping its digital asset regulations, while other nations have already advanced their frameworks in recent years. This transition could bring some positive developments for the crypto space later this month.

By April 30, marking his first 100 days in office, there’s potential for significant progress, including the passage of a major piece of crypto legislation.

AI Agent tokens expected to outperform

AI agents are autonomous programs designed to perform tasks or solve problems within a specific domain by making decisions based on data analysis, predefined rules, and their own experience. Recent data from CoinMarketCap indicates that the daily trading volume for top AI and data tokens have increased by 45% and continues to grow.

Keeping up with the trend, Binance Futures has launched three new USD-Margined Perpetual Contracts, giving users more trading options and greater flexibility.

We anticipate that AI Agents will continue to fuel a strong growth narrative throughout this month.

Seasonality favours crypto

Q1 of every year is the most bullish quarter as evidenced by data. A lot of investment decisions are made in this quarter and money flows are generally better. A 40-50% growth in Bitcoin this quarter is possible – altcoins can grow multi-fold if macro environment supports it.

Q1 is profitable. Source: Coinglass

What does it mean for you, the investor?

Our advice remains the same. Depending on your appetite, firm up your positions by the first two weeks of January and enjoy the ride in 2025.

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If you have any questions or feedback for us, write to us at [email protected]. You can check out the previous issues here.

Disclaimer: Crypto products and NFTs are unregulated and can be highly risky. There may be no regulatory recourse for any loss from such transactions. Please do your own research before investing and seek independent legal/financial advice if you are unsure about the investments.