20 December 2024

As we get ready to go on to holiday modes, we reflect on what a year it has been for Bitcoin and crypto! Starting the year from a modest $43,000, BTC is now a $2 trillion asset that is trading near $100,000 and looking strong for more gains in 2025.

The Santas in us are rejoicing surely.

Today, we will revisit the key things that drove crypto in 2024. Next week, let us see what we think will drive the narrative further in 2025.

Here we go.

Top-3 stories of the week:

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The newsletter is put together by Giottus Crypto Platform. You can read all the previous issues of Cryptogram here.

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WEEKLY MACROS

• Total crypto market cap - $3.32 trillion - DOWN 7.5%    

• Bitcoin price - $97,169 - DOWN 2.9%

• The dollar index (DXY) - 108.32 - UP 1.2%

• Bitcoin Dominance - 58.91% -  UP 4.2%

• Crypto Fear and Greed Index - 74 - Market is in Greed

THE HOT TAKE

2024: Bitcoin Enters the Big League

Let us delve into the four major forces that drove Bitcoin’s 2024 surge and examine how they’ve played a pivotal role in its march toward the $100K milestone.

Approval of spot ETFs

From retail investors seeking straightforward access to Bitcoin to institutions aiming to capitalize on the crypto's growth, Bitcoin ETFs have emerged as the most convenient entry point for US investors. These financial instruments enable investors to track Bitcoin's price movements without the need to directly purchase or manage crypto.

US SEC’s landmark approval of Bitcoin ETFs in early January marked a turning point, unlocking access for millions of retail investors in the US. By December, spot ETFs had collectively surpassed $100 billion in assets under management (AUM). According to data from K33 Research, the combined assets of Bitcoin ETFs have reached $129.3 billion. In fact, Bitcoin has outdone gold ETFs within their first year.

Bitcoin Halving 2024

Bitcoin halving events are important in shaping its price dynamics. These pre-programmed occurrences systematically reduce the pace at which new Bitcoin is introduced into circulation, fostering scarcity that has historically fuelled price appreciation. Occurring approximately every four years (or every 210,000 blocks), each halving event cuts the mining reward in half, aligning with Bitcoin's fixed supply cap of 21 million coins.

By limiting the influx of new Bitcoin, halvings create upward price pressure, assuming demand remains steady or increases. This mechanism has consistently influenced Bitcoin's market cycles over the years.

The fourth halving, which took place in April 2024, reduced the miner reward to 3.125 BTC, marking another significant milestone in Bitcoin's journey.

Institutional buying spree

While ETFs and halving events have undeniably shaped Bitcoin’s journey, much of the conviction behind its narrative can be attributed to Michael Saylor and MicroStrategy. The company embarked on its Bitcoin strategy in 2020, driven by concerns over inflation and the eroding value of fiat currencies.

Although Bitcoin now defines much of MicroStrategy’s public image, its original enterprise software business continues to operate in the background. As of now, MicroStrategy holds an impressive 439,002 BTC, with a market value of $44 billion, solidifying its status as a leading institutional advocate for Bitcoin. What’s even more compelling is MicroStrategy’s commitment to accumulate Bitcoin, even as the asset surpassed its all-time highs—has inspired other major corporations to explore Bitcoin as part of their own strategies.

US election was a major catalyst

The 2024 US presidential election was a defining moment, with its outcomes causing ripples across global markets and the crypto landscape. Typically political decisions, economic policies, and regulatory stances play a critical role in shaping the trajectory of Bitcoin and digital assets. The election of a crypto-friendly candidate, Donald Trump, brought renewed optimism to the market, driving Bitcoin to a fresh all-time high this year.

Trump’s transformation into a vocal advocate for Bitcoin marked a notable shift during his campaign. Key proposals included establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve to cement US leadership in crypto adoption and forming a dedicated Bitcoin and crypto advisory council to streamline regulatory clarity. If the idea of a national Bitcoin stockpile materializes, it could act as a powerful catalyst for the broader crypto market, further solidifying Bitcoin's role in the global economy.

Key Takeaway

If 2024 was a good year, 2025 can be even better. The longer-term outlook for Bitcoin remains highly bullish. With macroeconomic trends, technical indicators, and on-chain metrics aligning, Bitcoin is entering one of its most pivotal and promising phases yet. We will have 2024 and its events to thank for when we look back at history.

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If you have any questions or feedback for us, write to us at [email protected]. You can check out the previous issues here.

Disclaimer: Crypto products and NFTs are unregulated and can be highly risky. There may be no regulatory recourse for any loss from such transactions. Please do your own research before investing and seek independent legal/financial advice if you are unsure about the investments.